A SIMULATED EVALUATION OF THE TENNESSEE PROMISE USING ELS:2002: HOW DOES FINANCIAL AID EFFECT PERSISTENCE THROUGH COMMUNITY COLLEGE BY FAMILY INCOME

Abstract

This study examines the effect of financial aid and family income on a students’ first-to-second year persistence in community college. Data for this study are drawn from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS: 2002), sponsored by the National Center for Education Statistics. Probit estimation is used to assess the influence of the levels of family income and the types of financial aid on the likelihood that a freshman at community college persist to through to their sophomore year. The results of this study show that holding other variables constant students with higher levels of family income and who receive certain types of financial aid are more likely to persist. This study also reveals that the effect of financial aid on persistence does not vary by level of family income. This paper concludes with a discussion of implications for the Tennessee Promise and makes suggestions of what changes should be made to the program in order for it to achieve its goal of increasing the number of Tennessee residents with a postsecondary degree.