Evaluating PEPFAR: Is Sustainability Far-Fetched?
Malaki, Shalini Uyaiobong
Kern, Andreas T
The United States Presidents Emergency plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) represents the largest and most direct measure of foreign aid to address the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The distribution of PEPFAR funding over time can provide insights into HIV prevention, treatment and care through the evaluation of related HIV/AIDS outcomes. Given the state of the current global economy and change in U.S. administration, I test the hypothesis whether increased allocations for HIV specific funding through PEPFAR will have significant favorable effects on HIV incidence, HIV prevalence and the number of people living with HIV. Using World Bank open data, I find that there is no significant effect on being a PEPFAR recipient country and having favorable outcomes in the number of people living with HIV and HIV Prevalence. However, I conclude that increased funding to recipient countries is associated with a statistically significant decrease in AIDS related deaths in phase two of PEPFAR. This finding highlights the need for better evidence of PEPFAR effectiveness on more than just AIDS related deaths and supports PEPFAR’s emphasis on sustainability and more broadly the demand in global health to causally attribute outcomes to programs.
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