• Uncertainty and the Black Swan Origin Story 

      Svet, Oleg (2022-02-04)
      The “black swan” metaphor is today frequently used in both academic and non-academic sources to describe a plethora of events that seem to have been previously unexpected and/or unpredictable. This working paper is mostly ...
    • Uncertainty and the Unimaginable 

      Svet, Oleg (2022-02-08)
      How much can we “know”? In this essay, I sketch one stance on this question that, broadly speaking, posits that the resources of the human mind have some insurmountable limits, and that, as a result, the right answers to ...