Futures, Commodities and Rice Bowls
Le, Nghia-Piotr Trong
This paper explores the causality between rice commodities futures and rice prices in low-income net rice importing countries in the 2000-2013 time period. Using the Granger Causality Model built on top of a Vector Auto Regression Model and this paper shows that there is evidence between the behavior and characteristics of individual rice commodity futures and the prices of rice in the aforementioned countries. This paper then presents a set of policy proposals that either involve creating a new set of regulations to oversee rice commodity markets, or to empower vulnerable, low-income nations so that they have the capacity to leverage and benefit from the futures commodity marketplaces.
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