Cities and Vulnerabilities: International Security in the Urban Era

Abstract

How do urbanization and urban geography affect international security? Urbanization is one of the most important transformations in modern history, but its impacts–and the impacts of persistent inequalities in urbanization and urban geography–on interstate conflict and national security policies remain largely unexplored. I investigate how differences in countries’ urban geography and policy-makers’ understandings of urban vulnerability inform strategic thinking and behavior, from the willingness to engage in military confrontation and performance in crises, to decisions regarding nuclear weapons. I argue that the increased importance and vulnerability of cities to modern warfare generally produce higher expected costs of conflict, contributing to a decreased appetite for war. Moreover, I show that there is substantial variation in states’ levels of vulnerability owing to differences in urban geography across countries. These differences account for variation in countries’ willingness to engage in conflict and their ability to prevail in crises. Finally, I show that vulnerability caused by urban concentration is an important factor in explaining nuclear doctrine, force posture, and the varying degrees to which states behave according to the logic of the “nuclear revolution.” I utilize case studies drawing on extensive archival research in the US and UK and interviews in South Korea, as well as medium-N analysis of all nuclear countries, and a variety of statistical techniques to analyze data on urban geography, interstate conflict, and nuclear policy. This project offers a new way of thinking about geography, conflict, and technology, contributes to the understanding of the structural factors that shape international security, and helps explain and predict macrohistorical changes in the patterns of war and peace among nations.