Guns, Butter and Tweets: The Effectiveness of Modern Russian Statecraft

Abstract

Over the last decade, the Western world mobilized to counter the Russian Federation, which is seen as a revanchist security threat. However, little holistic analysis on the effectiveness of Russian foreign policy actually drives this threat perception. This study identifies the effect of Russian foreign policy instruments on other states in the international system through the lens of Russia’s strategic approach to modern warfare. Further, the study examines state vulnerabilities, resilience, and preferences that drive or mitigate Russian influence. Fixed effects and quantile estimation analyzes the effectiveness of Russian hard, soft, and sharp power policies in the international system, yielding two main lessons. First, among similarly less-overt economic instruments, hard power and hard power-enabling conditions drive a larger effect, in both significance and magnitude, than sharp or soft power tools. Second, the effectiveness and efficiency of Russian malign influence tools can be greatly amplified by context, in particular country development and bilateral policy preferences. These findings underscore the challenges facing Western policy makers to limit Russian success in the gray zone between peace and war. Framed within the principles and outcomes of Russian strategy, this study offers a perspective for the Western security community to better understand and counter Russian influence.