How Ceasefires Contribute to the Proliferation of Armed Groups

Abstract

The conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has lasted over 25 years and saw 140 armed groups at its height. Conversely, other conflicts, such as the one in Nigeria, have never seen high levels of proliferation of armed groups. Why do some conflicts see the proliferation of armed groups, while others do not? The current literature fails to answer this question, as it overlooks the significant role of small-scale fluid armed actors who cause the recurrence of violence. I argue that functional ceasefires create favorable conditions for the proliferation of armed groups. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis provide strong evidence to support this argument. The results crystallize the downside of ceasefires, and suggest that further research should be conducted to fill this knowledge gap in the study of group emergence.