Georgetown University LogoGeorgetown University Library LogoDigitalGeorgetown Home
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   DigitalGeorgetown Home
    • Georgetown University Institutional Repository
    • Georgetown College
    • Department of Government
    • Graduate Theses and Dissertations
    • Department of Government
    • View Item
    •   DigitalGeorgetown Home
    • Georgetown University Institutional Repository
    • Georgetown College
    • Department of Government
    • Graduate Theses and Dissertations
    • Department of Government
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    The Praetorian Bomb: How Nuclear Weapons Improve Political Durability

    Cover for The Praetorian Bomb: How Nuclear Weapons Improve Political Durability
    View/Open
    View/Open: Hagh_georgetown_0076D_14730.pdf (15.MB) Bookview

    Creator
    Hagh, Ariya
    Advisor
    Bennett, Andrew O
    ORCID
    0000-0003-2973-8773
    Abstract
    This project examines the impact of nuclear proliferation on regime and leader survival, proposing two mechanisms for this interaction. First, a bomb program can generate internal legitimacy by rallying support among relevant domestic audiences. Such initiatives are particularly valuable following contentious successions, providing new leaders with a means of consolidating their rule. Second, successful proliferation attempts can boost external security by incentivizing the international community to prevent regime collapse, either deterring foreign intervention or entrapping great powers into providing costly support to tentative allies. In the former, fears of nuclear inheritance, lost fissile materials, or last-ditch nuclear use can persuade major powers to back the continued survival of nuclear-capable states. In the latter, the shadow of nuclear escalation can motivate patrons to provide costly diplomatic or material support to client states. I rely on a mixed-methods research design to test these arguments. Survival analysis, Bayesian modeling, and a battery of robustness tests establish a baseline domestic hazard rate relative to nuclear activity. Next, two in-depth case studies trace the processes linking proliferation and political survival in Israel and South Africa, showing how weapons programs generate domestic support, deter external aggression, and entrap great power assistance. These benefits hold for as long as nuclear capabilities are maintained, prolonging the lives of states that would have otherwise faced insurmountable existential challenges. The analysis concludes with fifteen vignettes that highlight the generalizability and limitations of my theoretical framework.
    Description
    Ph.D.
    Permanent Link
    http://hdl.handle.net/10822/1060747
    Date Published
    2020
    Subject
    Deterrence; Non-proliferation; Nuclear Proliferation; Nuclear Weapons; Regime Durability; Regime Survival; International relations; Political Science; Statistics; International relations; Political science; Statistics;
    Type
    thesis
    Publisher
    Georgetown University
    Extent
    444 leaves
    Collections
    • Department of Government
    Metadata
    Show full item record

    Related items

    Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

    • Thumbnail

      The Church and the Bomb: Nuclear Weapons and Christian Conscience 

      Unknown author (Church of England. Board for Social Responsibility, 1982)
    Related Items in Google Scholar

    Georgetown University Seal
    ©2009 - 2022 Georgetown University Library
    37th & O Streets NW
    Washington DC 20057-1174
    202.687.7385
    digitalscholarship@georgetown.edu
    Accessibility
     

     

    Browse

    All of DigitalGeorgetownCommunities & CollectionsCreatorsTitlesBy Creation DateThis CollectionCreatorsTitlesBy Creation Date

    My Account

    Login

    Statistics

    View Usage Statistics

    Georgetown University Seal
    ©2009 - 2022 Georgetown University Library
    37th & O Streets NW
    Washington DC 20057-1174
    202.687.7385
    digitalscholarship@georgetown.edu
    Accessibility