Reasons for the Decline of U.S. Post-secondary Education Enrollment

Abstract

The United States has led the world in higher education for decades. However, enrollment in U.S. post-secondary institutions has declined year by year since 2011. Especially under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, this decline escalated, and the trend may continue. I focus on the possible factors that have led to this result, including high tuition fees and reduced financial subsidies, unmatched household incomes, a decreased college-age population, and major disease outbreaks. My hypothesis is disease outbreaks, economic factors, and demographic characteristics collectively affect enrollment in U.S. post-secondary institutions. Because COVID-19 related data are not yet available, I employ flu cases to simulate the effect of a major disease outbreak. After conducting fixed effects regressions, the results show that the coefficients on the variables of tuition fees, financial subsidies, flu cases, and total population are statistically significant, which support my hypothesis. My findings suggest that the government and universities should increase financial subsidies, especially during major disease outbreaks. Special preference and assistance policies can also help support enrollment.