Uncertainty and the Black Swan Origin Story

Abstract

The “black swan” metaphor is today frequently used in both academic and non-academic sources to describe a plethora of events that seem to have been previously unexpected and/or unpredictable. This working paper is mostly an empirical investigation of the origin stories behind the black swan metaphor. Broadly speaking, I find that, despite being presented as historic fact, black swan origin stories are myths at best, and that their ceaseless regurgitation amounts to a game of whispers played among adults.