Uncertainty and the Black Swan Origin Story
The “black swan” metaphor is today frequently used in both academic and non-academic sources to describe a plethora of events that seem to have been previously unexpected and/or unpredictable. This working paper is mostly an empirical investigation of the origin stories behind the black swan metaphor. Broadly speaking, I find that, despite being presented as historic fact, black swan origin stories are myths at best, and that their ceaseless regurgitation amounts to a game of whispers played among adults.
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Svet, Oleg (2022-02-08)How much can we “know”? In this essay, I sketch one stance on this question that, broadly speaking, posits that the resources of the human mind have some insurmountable limits, and that, as a result, the right answers to ...