Early Voting and Turnout: A Quantitative Analysis

Abstract

Early voting is an increasingly common method of voting in U.S. federalelections. But the empirical record on its actual impact on turnout is mixed, with national surveys often finding negligible improvements to voter turnout. In this paper I use a panel dataset of federal elections from 2010 to 2020 to estimate the impact of early voting, specifically focused on early in-person voting (EIPV). The results show that early voting does not have positive impact on turnout, except among black voters. I conclude with policy recommendations based on these findings and possible extensions to further explore how and why early voting may not influence turnout.