Where do rebels attack? : rationality behind Nepalese Maoist insurgents' choice of security bases
Khadka, Prabin Bahadur.
Thesis (M.A.)--Georgetown University, 2011.; Includes bibliographical references.; Text (Electronic thesis) in PDF format. Why do rebels choose to attack security base "X" over security base "Y"? This paper attempts to analyze the rationality behind the insurgents' choice to do so in a comparative perspective with the aim of addressing the following questions. Do insurgents, as widely accepted, launch attacks primarily against security bases that are isolated and vulnerable? How are the attacks linked to the political, social and economic factors of the area? Are attacks launched in areas where the opportunity cost is low? In an attempt to answer these questions, the paper takes Nepal's civil war as a case study and models the factors involved in Maoist insurgent attacks against fixed security bases in the 75 districts of Nepal. It quantitatively analyzes the dynamics involved behind 64 major attacks by the Maoist insurgents in the final phase of the "protracted insurgency" from 1999-2001. The study's findings contradict the conventional wisdom and show no correlation between geographical feasibility and attacks. Instead, targets are selected where prevalent grievances--political marginalization--can be exploited with economic incentives.
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