Relative peace in Iraq : a policy evaluation of the surge in troop levels
Smith, Michael Anthony.
Thesis (M.P.P.)--Georgetown University, 2009.; Includes bibliographical references. The March 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq have given rise to debate on the causes of post-invasion civilian violence and its subsequent decrease beginning in early 2007. Popular press and academic journals have pointed to the roles of U.S. troop levels, Iraqi security forces, the political environment of Iraq, and socioeconomic conditions in reducing violence. The decrease coincides with a widely publicized 2007 Bush administration policy in Iraq referred to as the surge, the main component of which was an increase in troop levels. This paper uses a multivariate regression analysis to examine the determinants of the decrease in civilian violence and, in particular, the effect of the surge. The empirical results show that troop levels and other policy changes associated with the surge have a significant effect on reducing levels of civilian violence. These results have policy implications for other U.S. nation-building efforts, most notably for the conflict in Afghanistan.
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