An Econometric Analysis of the Effect of Project Characteristics on the Success or Failure of Public-Private Infrastructure Projects
The demand for public-private project development has increased with a global spike in demand for infrastructure, public fiscal constraints, and a wariness of risk in large-scale projects (especially in developing countries) in the private sector. As demand has grown, so has the importance of public-private project financing arrangements to the health of economies and financial markets. More than ever we need to understand if there are particular factors that contribute to the success of these projects. This Thesis addresses that question. After providing a literature review on factors affecting project success or failure, I will use a logit regression analysis with robust standard errors to explore data from the World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure Database (PPID), augmented with country-level data on corruption and institutional quality. Specifically, I will ask whether the following factors have a statistically significant impact on the likelihood of project success or failure: " the level of private involvement in a project; " the project industry (energy, telecommunications, transportation, or water and sanitation); and " the project vehicle or form (divestitures, concession agreements, greenfield projects, or management and lease agreements). I find evidence to support a statistically significant correlation between the level of private involvement and project success in all models, and a statistically significant correlation between energy and telecommunications projects and project success in my final model (a random effects logit).
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Marshall, Eliot (2000-10-13)