The rational voter in an age of red and blue states: the effect of perceived closeness on turnout in the 2004 presidential election
This paper studies the effect of perceived closeness on voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election. Previous research has not examined the closeness-turnout relationship in recent presidential elections, and has suffered from a lack of statistical power. In this paper, turnout is examined at the county level to increase statistical power, and campaign efforts by candidates, parties, and interest groups are controlled for in the model. A measure of perceived closeness is constructed using polls published in the media. The results provide support for the hypothesis that perceived closeness affected voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election, independent of the effect of campaign activities. This paper suggests that citizens were more likely to vote in competitive states for two reasons: (1) Citizens perceived that their votes were more likely to be decisive in these states, and (2) Citizens in competitive states were exposed to a greater number of campaign advertisements.
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Third Party Candidates And Voter Turnout: Policy Implications For Public Financing Of Presidential Elections Hensley, Henry; Hensley, Henry (2008-04-09)Given the soaring cost of mounting a presidential run, public campaign financing for elections is a policy issue overdue for reform. The financial advantage held by major party candidates in the 2008 election effectively ...