An Assessment of the Social and Economics Determinants of Provincial Voting Behavior in Turkey

Abstract

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF PROVINCIAL VOTING BEHAVIOR IN TURKEY

Tayyar Dogan, B. S.

Thesis Adviser: Andreas Kern, Ph.D.

ABSTRACT

Using fixed effects estimation, this study assesses the relationship between the provincial election results of 2002 and 2011 in Turkey's 81 provinces, and provincial socio-economic development level. To operationalize the socio-economic development level; urbanization rate, education level and income level are used. Some geographic variables are also used in order to take into account the geographical clustering in Turkish voting behavior.

The study finds a statistically significant correlation between the provincial voting behavior and provincial socio-economic development levels. The magnitude and direction of this correlation is very different across different economic and social development indicators and different political parties.

This study is novel in that it combines social, economic and geographic variables, which is crucial to achieving the high predictive power for provincial electoral behavior in Turkey. It is also the first study of its kind covering the whole period of 2002-2011, when the current ruling party took office, and comparing the voting behavior toward the three major political parties.

Keywords: voting behavior, political party, election