The Impact of Oil Dependence on Democracy
de Brauw, Alan
In this thesis I assess whether the oil dependence of a nation, measured as the percentage of that nation's exports derived from fuel sales, negatively affects a nation's level of democracy as proposed previously in the literature (eg. Ross, 2001). This paper builds upon previous research by using fixed effects models to analyze whether oil dependence is related to levels of democracy. This paper also attempts to identify variables that might confound the relationship between oil dependence and democracy: the Rentier effect, repression, and modernization. Analysis shows little evidence, both statistically and magnitudinally that a nation's dependence on oil negatively affects democracy. Additionally, there is little evidence that any of the three proposed mechanisms have a statistically significant relationship with democracy.
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