BREAD AND RIOTS: ASSESSING THE EFFECT OF FOOD SECURITY ON POLITICAL STABILITY

Abstract

Policymakers routinely argue that food security undergirds political stability within a country. Indeed, this linkage motivates much of US foreign food assistance. However, the broader literature does not substantiate this conclusion, finding most internal conflicts arise not from common grievances but from narrow avarice. Though some researchers have found empirical evidence that food security and political stability might be linked, these studies are burdened by data and methodological issues. Using novel data sources and a unique conceptual model, this paper seeks to address these potential problems. We find, in contradiction to expectations, that increases in absolute levels of food security significantly increase the frequency of events of political unrest in a country. This finding is robust to different specifications of our model, lending credence to its validity. However, we also find that increases in the relative levels of food security significantly reduce political instability. If true, these findings suggest that the US government might wish to reconsider certain assumptions that underlie its food security policy and consider alleviating relative declines in food availability in addition to absolute decreases.