Clash of the Titans: The Prospects of United States-China War

Abstract

As many have noted, the intellectual and practical question of why states go to war is one of the most pressing, important, and seemingly insoluble in the history of humankind and the study of social sciences, especially the field of international relations. Moreover, history is replete with examples of the armed conflict that accompanies the rise of a new major power, especially a great power, in the international system. In addition, considering the threat to human life, human rights, and the potential for human suffering, the matter of entering into war by an individual, group and or state is a matter of the highest moral and ethical consideration--and consequence.

While some believe that great power wars are a tattered relic of the distant past, history seems to differ with that notion, instead lending credence to the idea that the world's most powerful country, the United States, will likely be challenged for its preeminent position in the international system at some point by the most significant rising power in the world today, the People's Republic of China. If this contest comes to pass, such an occurrence could result in the first great power war in the nuclear age, an event of immeasurable consequence on a wide range of issues of importance.

As such, this dissertation intends to assess the current prospects of US-China war. It will do so first by examining the context of Sino-American relations, looking at Chinese and American just war traditions, and identifying the widely accepted contributing theoretical factors that promote or retard great power war. The dissertation will then overlay the characteristics of the US-China dyad onto 10 theoretical factors that encourage or discourage war and Chinese and American just war traditions to create what I will call contextually and theoretically informed "compound factors." From this, an assessment will be made as to the effect these compound factors have on the risk of Sino-American war.

I conclude, based on the interdisciplinary application of political science theory related to the causes of war and peace and the circumstances surrounding current Sino-American relations that there are well-founded reasons to be concerned about the prospects of armed conflict between Washington and Beijing. Indeed, I believe the chances of war to be approximately even based on the preliminary model developed herein. While this assessment is pessimistic, war is not inevitable. Accordingly, considering the numerous normative and human values at stake such as sovereignty, territorial integrity, peace, justice, and human rights, I recommend a number of practical steps that the political leaders of both countries could take to manage competently this potentially highly volatile relationship for their mutual benefit and that of the wider international community.