Iran and Regional Security Dynamics in the Middle East: Trends and Prospects

Abstract

For some time now, observers of the international relations of the Middle East have tried to decipher emerging security dynamics in the region in the aftermath of the US invasion and occupation of Iraq. Clearly, the Iraq war has thrown into confusion and uncertainty many of the existing assumptions about the region's security architecture and its international relations. That much is agreed upon. What scholars and observers disagree over is the precise nature of emerging trends that are likely to shape regional alliance and conflicts in the coming years and decades. This article seeks to map out those existing and emerging security trends that are likely to shape regional dynamics and international relations in the Middle East in the coming years and assesses what they mean for Iran's position in the region. There are, the article claims, two broad, relatively easily discernible, on-going trends whose outcomes and impacts for the larger Middle East can be determined with some certainty. The first trend is continued American military presence in-if not necessarily commensurately high levels of diplomatic focus on-the Middle East. A second trend is the continued qualitative O shift in the nature of power that has determined regional alignments and postures over the last decade or so.