The Interpretation of Laboratory Results: The Paradoxical Effect of Medical Training

Abstract

A physician's failure to recognize that a test result might be falsely positive can doom a patient to unnecessary treatment. Failure to recognize that a test result might be falsely negative can result in malignant neglect. Yet physicians are often incapable of interpreting probabilistic clinical data correctly. In asking first-year medical students a question on the interpretation of a laboratory test result, I was surprised that a higher proportion answered correctly than was reported for more advanced medical students and physicians. I undertook this study to confirm whether there was a decline in physicians' ability to solve a statistical problem during the course of their medical training and, if so, to begin to search for an explanation.