Modeling State Decisions to Pursue Nuclear Weapons
Lee, So Jin
This paper addresses the puzzle of why states proliferate nuclear weapons, despite a widespread call for global nuclear disarmament and the high costs of non-compliance behavior that follow. Most existing research on the determinants of nuclear proliferation has focused solely on either the demand-side or the supply-side of the equation. I, however, approach the puzzle by simultaneously using both the supply and demand aspect of nuclear proliferation, using existing concepts. I hypothesize that states pursue nuclear weapons when they perceive high levels of security threats, and if the following two conditions are met: 1) states do not have a credible, unconditional alliance with a nuclear superpower, and 2) states have received significant nuclear assistance. Based on my hypothesis, I construct an analytical framework and test my set of hypotheses, using the variations in North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons over-time as a case study. By analyzing North Korea's case, I found that all three variables - level of perceived threat, credible and unconditional alliance with a nuclear superpower, and whether the state has received significant nuclear assistance - are important when studying why states proliferate nuclear weapons. My findings imply three policy options that could successfully prevent other "latent" states from becoming full-fledged nuclear states.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Artson, Bradley S. (1988)
Exposure of the American Population to Radioactive Fallout From Nuclear Weapons Tests: A Review of the Cdc-Nci Draft Report on a Feasibility Study of the Health Consequences to the American Population From Nuclear Weapons Tests Conducted by The United States and Other Nations Unknown author (National Research Council (United States). Division on Earth and Life Studies. Board on Radiation Effects Research. Committee to Review the CDC-NCI Feasibility Study of the Health Consequences from Nuclear Weapons Tests, 2003)
The First Nuclear World War: A Strategy for Preventing Nuclear Wars and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons O'Heffernan, Patrick; Lovins, Amory B.; and Lovins, L. Hunter (1983)