Adhering, Distancing, or Waffling? Understanding a New Dilemma in the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Abstract

GJAA covers topics pertinent to Central, Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia, combining policy prescriptions, academic research, and pedagogical insights on Asia.

This paper attempts to explain the puzzling silence the United States has exhibited towards Japan’s potential development of autonomous strike capabilities. While welcoming a general trend for Japan to become a more active player, the United States also fears that some of Japan’s proactive security policies could cause a heightened risk of entrapment into an insecurity spiral in Northeast Asia. This paper seeks to improve the existing literature on how states respond to the risk of entrapment by arguing that before a state chooses either a distancing strategy (moving away from the ally) or an adhesion strategy (moving closer to the ally), it first engages in a strategy of inaction, or what this paper calls a “wafing strategy.” Additionally, this paper posits that international pressure, depending on where it originates from, can force a state to move from a “waffling strategy” to adhesion or distancing.