A Systematic Review of Physicians' Survival Predictions in Terminally Ill Cancer Patients
BMJ: British Medical Journal 2003 July 26; 327(7408): 195-198
OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the accuracy of physicians' clinical predictions of survival in terminally ill cancer patients. DATA SOURCES: Cochrane Library, Medline (1996- 2000), Embase, Current Contents, and Cancerlit databases as well as hand searching. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were included if a physician's temporal clinical prediction of survival (CPS) and the actual survival (AS) for terminally ill cancer patients were available for statistical analysis. Study quality was assessed by using a critical appraisal tool produced by the local health authority. DATA SYNTHESIS: Raw data were pooled and analysed with regression and other multivariate techniques. RESULTS: 17 published studies were identified; 12 met the inclusion criteria, and 8 were evaluable, providing 1563 individual prediction-survival dyads. CPS was generally overoptimistic (median CPS 42 days, median AS 29 days); it was correct to within one week in 25% of cases and overestimated survival by at least four weeks in 27%. The longer the CPS the greater the variability in AS. Although agreement between CPS and AS was poor (weighted kappa 0.36), the two were highly significantly associated after log transformation (Spearman rank correlation 0.60, P
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